Do French windfarms continue to fall short of pre-construction energy production forecasts?

As previously mentioned on LinkedIn by Everoze Partner Fatima Grondona, Everoze’s last assessment reveals a 5.1% gap between the actual production of the wind farms and pre-construction energy production assessments. This significant gap underscores the intricate nature of the challenge.

After adjusting for factors such as windiness, availability and curtailment losses, wake losses and incorporating recent methodology improvements into old pre-construction energy production assessments, the initial gap is reduced to 1.8%.

It is nevertheless evident that further progress is possible, presenting clear opportunities for enhanced accuracy and limit the overprediction of pre-construction energy production assessments.

These results bring to light four key observations:

🌬 France has experienced higher wind speeds over recent years.

🔍 Recent improvements in wind flow and energy modelling such as blockage effects or site-specific power curve adjustments are essential for accurately representing the actual performance of wind turbines rather than just being seen as conservative assumptions.

🦇 Environmental curtailments remain exceedingly challenging to predict in France.

✅ High-quality data from post-construction studies is crucial for identifying and addressing energy losses.

At Everoze, we recognize the importance of accuracy in wind energy production assessment. These insights drive us to keep sharpening our models and methods, ensuring we stay ahead of the curve in the ever-evolving energy sector.

Click here to read Everoze’s analysis

Please reach to us for more information: Fatima Grondona Fernandez, Brieuc Pey, Clément Hochart or Tom Labrosse