Will path dependence in Floating Offshore Wind be a risk to long term success?

As published on LinkedIn by Everoze Partner Daniel Bacon, October 2024

Just over 2 weeks ago, my colleague, Zoë Barnes, presented the Floating Offshore Wind (FOW) Vision Statement (link) at the well-attended and (in my opinion) excellent Floating Offshore Wind conference in Aberdeen.  Whilst it was written for the UK, the themes will be familiar across the FOW industry.

To deliver on the vision we will have to develop the industrial base and associated infrastructure, whilst simultaneously grappling with cost reduction pressures. There is a delicate resulting balance between the need for innovation, and the drumbeat of standardisation.

The labyrinth: The routes, or paths, we choose to follow will set our cost trajectory and hence the long term prospects of the FOW industry. This is path dependence, a powerful force. In the labyrinth of FOW there will be multiple such paths to unlocking the future vision, and just as many dead-ends.

Decisions, decisions: But the labyrinth is big. The number of options, not just in terms of technology, but how it is delivered and operated, is far greater than the fixed-bottom offshore wind industry is accustomed to. More options to appraise, each requiring significant bandwidth, analytical muscle and time.

Finding the navigable routes: It’s always tempting to constrain solutions to those which others have applied before, but within the labyrinth of FOW taking a single path will increase the chances of finding a dead-end.  To succeed we will need to resist every instinct to standardise anything other than critical interfaces and boundaries, and instead allow a range of concepts to flourish within them, trying multiple promising paths to see which are navigable. Seeking solutions in this complex environment is an exciting prospect for the FOW industry, and one we are here for!

If you’d like to know more about how our project development and engineering capability can be applied to help you, your project or technology find the right path, then please get in touch.