Wind-Peaking: Why It’s Time to Let Aging Wind Assets Rest (Sometimes)

Rather than running wind assets into the ground, Joseph Phillips wonders if it’s time to take a smarter approach. Check out his new blog on « wind peaking’.

We don’t usually think of wind farms as tired. Spinning away in the distance, turbines seem ageless, almost eternal — silent sentinels of the energy transition. But talk to an asset manager, and you’ll hear a different story: creaking gearboxes, blade erosion, and a growing stack of repair invoices. Many of the UK’s earliest wind farms are now over 15 years old. Some are pushing 25.

And that’s where the idea of wind peaking — yes, you read that right — starts to get interesting.

The Wrong Question

For years, the question was simple: How do we squeeze as much generation as possible out of these assets? The answer was equally simple — run them flat out. After all, for younger assets, wind is free and marginal cost is near-zero.

But that’s not the world we live in now. The subsidy era is winding down, prices are more volatile, and the market environment for new greenfield projects is pretty tough. More to the point, for an aging turbine, there actually is a hidden marginal cost via the run-hours spent bringing the next repair intervention into view.

In this context, a better question might be:

How do we extract the most value — not volume — from our aging wind fleet?

The Case for Letting Go (Sometimes)

Imagine treating older wind turbines less like baseload generators and more like peaking plants. Instead of running them ragged during every gust, we let them idle during low-price periods, preserving fatigue life of key components. Then, when prices surge — think cold evenings, tight margins — we let them roar.

This isn’t a new idea. Engineers have long theorised about “fatigue-aware dispatch.” But it always felt a little academic — like taking a Ferrari out only when the motorway’s empty. That’s changing. Three things are bringing this into the mainstream:

Age: The UK’s early wind pioneers are starting to show their age with asset managers turning their attention to boosting post-subsidy profitability and dealing with decommissioning liabilities.
Market Volatility: With gas prices swinging wildly and interconnectors dancing to European rhythms, the spread between low and high price periods is growing. Flexibility pays.
Data: SCADA systems and forecasting tools are more advanced than ever. We can predict wear, revenue, and risk with confidence — and finally act on it.

How It Might Work

A peaking strategy could be as simple as this: “Idle unless the day-ahead price is over £70/MWh.” It’s not elegant. But it’s a start.

You generate less energy overall, sure. But you reduce wear on key components — blades, bearings, gearboxes — which could buy you another five years of life at the tail end of the project. You also sidestep the balancing mechanism when prices dip into the negatives, which is happening more than you might think.

More sophisticated models could use real-time load estimates, turbulence, component health data and trading data to decide whether to operate. But even a blunt instrument version could yield value in the right portfolio.

Price Cannibalisation impacts

Now, let’s address the elephant in the nacelle.

One of the most obvious critiques of this strategy is that wind generation and high prices often don’t get along. When the wind is howling, prices tend to tank — flooded markets, negative bids, the whole orchestra. And it’s true: there’s a well-documented inverse correlation between wind output and market price – often referred to as ‘price cannibalisation’ – especially during high wind periods and low demand windows.

But that doesn’t kill the idea. It just reshapes it.

The opportunity isn’t in chasing every gust, but in picking your moments. Price spikes still happen when wind is steady — not gone. Tight evening margins, interconnector dips, or a gas plant hiccup can all lift prices even when there’s moderate wind. Geographical variations in wind speeds also helps when playing in a single national electricity market i.e. even if wind speeds are lower on average, in my spot, for the next hour or two, they’re not bad.

More importantly, the goal here isn’t just revenue — it’s maximising NPV by maximising the ratio of revenue to damage. By easing off during those low-margin, high-stress hours, you’re not just skipping cheap power — you’re buying time, reducing maintenance, and potentially stretching asset life years beyond the PPA.

This isn’t about waiting for windless price peaks. It’s about building a smart filter — and running only when it really matters.

The Obvious Objections

This approach isn’t going to work everywhere. New turbines, under warranty and on generous CfDs, should absolutely keep spinning. But for aging assets running merchant, where O&M costs are mounting and revenues are uncertain — the calculus is different.

And no, this isn’t about gaming the market. It’s about strategic conservation — like easing off the accelerator to extend the life of your car. Smart operators already know the pain of a surprise gearbox failure. Wouldn’t you rather avoid it?

A Mindset Shift

If we want a grid that’s both green and reliable, we need to think beyond binary “on/off” logic. Sometimes the grown-up move is knowing when to switch off — and why.

Wind peaking isn’t about being idle. It’s about being intentional. And as our fleet gets older, that might just be the smartest thing we can do.

At Everoze, we’ve developed some handy IP to find the right peaking algorithm for any wind asset without throwing the analytical-kitchen-sink at the problem. So if you’re a wind-peaker-wannabe, do get in touch.