UK Wind: mid-life crisis or growing old gracefully?
Published March 2025
Interested in opportunities emerging from demographic shifts in UK Wind projects? Check out this hot-take from our very own aging asset, Joseph Phillips.
Just like me, much of the UK wind fleet is having to accept and navigate middle age. Since I’ve been in the sector, the average age of assets has roughly doubled (as have I), despite all the new installation activity in that period. The youthful exuberance of the mid-noughties, has given way to an emerging maturity. For us both, it’s time to take stock, figure out what really matters, and seize new opportunities. New leases of life.
Taking stock with a little generational gratitude
I was fortunate enough to get on the housing ladder when prices were within reach for a Gen-X white collar worker in their twenties. I’m grateful for this fluke of timing, just as owners of wind assets of a certain vintage should be. Be it the double-ROC-boomers (currently at a buy-out price of £129 / MWh) or one of those entitled early-CfD-millennials (AR1 offshore projects at £120 / MWh, index-linked), many mid-age assets enjoy the generational benefits of having been in the right place at the right time. Sure, risk margins and capital costs we’re higher back then (‘you kids have it easy!’). But for those projects which are now debt free, recurring mid-life profits can be… rejuvenating.
Nothing ever lasts forever though, and many mid-life assets are now looking ahead to a post-subsidy future saddled with spiralling costs and performance issues to deal with. Sounds a bit like a middle manager who suddenly finds themselves on the wrong end of a redundancy just as the kids Uni fees kick-in. The differences for wind assets, is that we can see this change coming and have time to look at our strategic options.
Comparing the dry and wet constituents of the fleet, there was a beautiful moment of balance last year when onshore and offshore cohorts were neck and neck both in terms of installed capacity (~15GW each) and average asset age (around 10 years). For me, whether its on dry land or at sea, these auspicious omens signal that the time is ripe for checking health and planning for the future.
Checking health from all the angles
The first step must be to understand where we stand with our health. For operational assets, this means more than just assessing the integrity of the physical asset, though this is important of course. Just like someone figuring out how to tackle middle-aged spread, a truly holistic health check is needed, looking at all the angles from land rights to consent, from supply chain to offtake and from grid agreements to the corporate strategy of the owner. The latter will often be looking for synergies and upsides across their portfolio, rather than an asset by asset approach. Risks and opportunities will exist within each of these categories and a proper diagnosis is needed before treatment options can be tabled.
Finding the right options to grow old gracefully
Having established our middle-aged health, it’s time to create a positive vision for the future with the help of some trusted health care professionals. This means getting all the options on the table. From asset sweating to the complete redevelopment of the site and everything between, nothing should be out of bounds at this stage. Evaluating the feasibility (‘can we?’) and economics (‘should we?’) of each broad category provides a solid basis for more detailed work on a promising short-list.
Following my personal asset integrity review, I find myself on a new diet and exercise regime with a greater focus on good mental health. But everyone (and every project) is different of course. So getting to grips with the specifics of each case is essential for sound health planning. For example, life extension through asset sweating might work well for projects with a solid supply chain for spares, proven levels of asset integrity and good ops provision. But if these aren’t in place, repowering with the incorporation of energy storage and / or solar might be the way to go even if those things reintroduce development risk.
In practice, I’ve found that there are many sub-division of each health option: exercising with free-weights or focusing on cardio? Repowering with new tech at higher consent risk, or replacing on a like for like basis? The best answers emerge from a rational framework enabling an increasingly detailed approach with phased decision making.
It’s all about structure, timing and creativity
Just as a trusted medical professional helps guide personal well-being, an experienced partner can provide the expertise needed to assess the health of wind assets and navigate the complex choices in later life.
Over the years, we’ve found that the best outcomes come from combining thorough assessments with creative solutions. For wind asset owners, this means having a clear and comprehensive view of available options, whether it’s optimizing existing assets or exploring repowering possibilities. Whether you’re looking to extend the life of a project or consider a new technology mix, making the right decision requires careful, informed analysis based on a thorough understanding of the asset’s unique circumstances.
Given the gradual demographic shifts indicated in the numbers above, we’re now seeing an uptick in enquiries for our services in this area. This is great because our team enjoys getting under the skin of maturing projects, relishing the challenge of finding ways of giving them a new lease of life.
They’ve learnt that the best outcomes require:
- Structure and detail. Every asset is different, with its own history and quirks. Interviewing ops teams on the ground is as important as analysing the data if you want credible findings. But all this quantitative and qualitative data needs to be collated coherently into a structured framework to support effective decision making.
- Getting creative. Thinking the unthinkable can come from bringing in fresh eyes. Even if the majority of wacky options end up in the bin, sometimes a unconventional approach can make sense once all the angles have been considered.
- Not leaving it too late. Like a middle-aged patient who puts off that check-up, options can be severely limited if asset health isn’t prioritised. Equipment lead times as well as grid and planning constraints often make it difficult to pursue attractive routes if action is taken too late.
Having staved off my own mid-life health crisis (so far!), I can already feel the benefits of sticking to my new health plan, even if it’s tough at times. When it comes to maturing wind assets, a little structured reflection followed by concerted action can make all the difference too.
As the aging of our renewables fleets rises up the agenda, I’m keen to hear about your experience of working up options for later life assets, so please get in touch.
